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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.