Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.
Significant Hurdles in the Selection Process
A number of members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to avert any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
