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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."