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Against the backdrop of the immense confusion following the US strikes on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the early hours of Saturday saw its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another state and abduct its leader – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may live to repent if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.